Kev tsav tsheb tsis txaus
Ntawm qhov tod tes, los ntawm qhov kev xav ntawm steel mills 'resumption ntawm ntau lawm, hlau ore tseem muaj kev txhawb nqa;Ntawm qhov tod tes, los ntawm kev xav ntawm tus nqi thiab lub hauv paus, hlau ore yog me ntsis overvalued.Txawm hais tias tseem muaj kev txhawb zog rau cov hlau ore yav tom ntej, peb yuav tsum tau ceev faj txog kev pheej hmoo ntawm kev poob qis.
Txij li thaum lub lag luam hlau ore pib nce rau lub Kaum Ib Hlis 19 xyoo tas los, daim ntawv cog lus 2205 tau rov qab los ntawm qhov qis ntawm 512 yuan / tuj mus rau 717.5 yuan / ton, nce ntawm 40.14%.Tam sim no disk yog trading sideways ib ncig ntawm 700 yuan / ton.Los ntawm qhov kev xav tam sim no, ntawm ib sab, los ntawm qhov kev xav ntawm steel mills 'resumption ntawm ntau lawm, hlau ore tseem txhawb nqa;Ntawm qhov tod tes, los ntawm kev xav ntawm tus nqi thiab lub hauv paus, hlau ore yog me ntsis overvalued.Saib tom ntej, tus sau ntseeg tias txawm hais tias hlau ore tseem muaj kev txhawb zog rau lub sijhawm tam sim no, nws yuav tsum tau ceev faj txog kev pheej hmoo ntawm kev poob qis.
zoo tso lawm
Cov yam tseem ceeb uas ua rau muaj kev nce hauv cov hlau ore nyob rau theem pib yog qhov xav tau rov pib dua ntawm cov khoom siv steel thiab qhov xav tau tiag tiag tom qab qhov kev xav tau tsaws.Cov kev cia siab tam sim no maj mam dhau los ua qhov tseeb.Cov ntaub ntawv qhia tias thaum Lub Kaum Ob Hlis 24 xyoo tas los, cov khoom lag luam steel zeb + hiav txwv drift cov khoom muag tag nrho 44,831,900 tons, nce 3.0216 lab tons ntawm lub hli dhau los;Lub Kaum Ob Hlis 31 xyoo tas los, cov khoom lag luam steel zeb + hiav txwv drift cov khoom muag tag nrho 45,993,600 tons, hli-rau-hli.Kev nce ntawm 1,161,700 tons.Cov ntaub ntawv saum toj no qhia tau hais tias cov khoom lag luam qis qis uas lub zeb zeb tau khaws cia rau ib nrab xyoo tau pib xoob, thiab lub zeb zeb tau pib ntxiv cov khoom muag.Kev thim rov qab hauv Shugang thiab kev tshem tawm cov khoom lag luam tawm thawj zaug txij li lub Cuaj Hli 2021 kuj tau lees paub qhov no.
Nyob rau hauv cov ntaub ntawv hais tias lub replenishment ntawm cov nroj tsuag steel tau txiav txim siab, peb yuav tsum tau xav txog ob yam teeb meem: Ua ntej, thaum twg lub replenishment ntawm cov nroj tsuag steel yuav xaus?Qhov thib ob, nws yuav siv sijhawm ntev npaum li cas rau kev rov pib dua ntawm kev tsim khoom kom muaj kev cuam tshuam txog kev rov qab los ntawm cov hlau molten?Hais txog thawj lo lus nug, feem ntau hais lus, yog tias cov nroj tsuag steel tsuas yog rov ua dua lub tsev khaws khoom ib ntus, lub sijhawm yuav tsis pub dhau peb lub lis piam.Yog tias qhov kev thov tseem ua tau zoo, steel mills tseem yuav nce cov khoom muag, uas tau pom nyob rau hauv kev nce mus ntxiv ntawm qhov chaw ntawm qhov chaw nres nkoj ntim, kev ntim khoom, thiab cov khoom muag steel zeb.Tam sim no, steel mills feem ntau yuav rov ua dua lawv cov tsev khaws khoom nyob rau theem, feem ntau yog vim li cas hauv qab no: Ua ntej, thaj av yav qab teb, uas tuaj yeem rov pib ua haujlwm tas mus li, yuav sai sai rau lub caij nyoog txo kev siv peev txheej hauv Lub Ib Hlis;Vim muaj kev txwv tsis pub dhau lub caij nplooj zeeg thiab lub caij ntuj no thiab lub caij ntuj no Olympics, qhov kev siv lub peev xwm tsis zoo li yuav nce ntxiv, thiab tsis muaj qhov xwm txheej rau kev rov ua haujlwm tas li;Thib peb, nyob rau sab hnub tuaj Tuam Tshoj, uas yog lub zog tseem ceeb rau kev rov pib dua ntawm kev tsim khoom, kev siv lub peev xwm yuav tsum rov qab los ntawm 10% -15%, Tab sis yog tias koj saib nws los ntawm kev sib piv kab rov tav, thaum lub caij nplooj ntoos hlav Festival xyoo dhau los, lub Scope ntawm nws resumption ntawm ntau lawm yog tseem txwv.Yog li ntawd, peb yuav xav tias tsis ntev los no replenishment thiab resumption ntawm ntau lawm yog tag nrho cov phased.
Hais txog lo lus nug thib ob, nws xav tias cov hlau molten yuav tuaj txog lub Ib Hlis, nce mus txog 2.05 lab rau 2.15 lab tons hauv ib hnub.Tab sis txij li thaum rov pib dua ntawm kev tsim khoom yog phased, qhov rov ua haujlwm ntawm cov hlau molten nyob rau hauv ob peb lub lis piam tom ntej no yuav tsis muaj lub sij hawm ntev mus rau ntawm lub disk.
Kwv tij siab zoo
Ua ntej ntawm tag nrho cov, los ntawm qhov kev xav ntawm tus nqi, tus nqi kiag li twb siab txheeb ze rau cov hauv paus.Hauv kev sib piv kab rov tav, nthwv dej kawg tau pib los ntawm qhov chaw muag khoom, mus rau qhov kev xav tau rov pib ua lag luam, mus rau qhov kev xav tau ntxiv ntawm steel mills, thiab qhov nce thiab poob ntawm cov hlau molten tau tshwm sim hauv kev ua lag luam txij lub Cuaj Hli mus txog Lub Kaum Hli Ntuj xyoo tas los. , thaum tus nqi disk siab.Nyob ib ncig ntawm 800 yuan / ton.Nyob rau lub sijhawm ntawd, cov khoom lag luam hlau ore chaw nres nkoj yog 128.5722 lab tons, thiab qhov nruab nrab txhua hnub molten hlau tso tawm yog 2.2 lab tons.Qhov xwm txheej ntawm cov khoom muag tam sim no thiab qhov kev xav tau yog qhov phem tshaj thaum lub Cuaj Hlis xyoo tas los.Txawm hais tias xav txog qhov rov pib ua haujlwm hauv Lub Ib Hlis, nws xav tias cov hlau molten yuav tsis rov qab mus rau 2.2 lab tons / hnub.
Qhov thib ob, los ntawm kev txheeb xyuas qhov tseeb, lub hauv paus ntawm 2205 daim ntawv cog lus feem ntau khaws cia ntawm 70-80 yuan / ton hauv Lub Ob Hlis thiab Lub Peb Hlis ntawm txhua xyoo.Tam sim no lub hauv paus ntawm 2205 daim ntawv cog lus yog nyob ze 0, txawm tias qhov chaw tus nqi xws li cov hmoov super muaj 100 yuan / tuj nce, xav txog lub hauv paus muaj zog, qhov kev ua raws li disk kuj muaj tsawg heev.Dab tsi ntxiv, tam sim no qhov chaw nres nkoj tseem ceeb ntawm cov hmoov tshwj xeeb yog feem ntau nyob ib ncig ntawm 470 yuan / tuj, thiab tsis muaj cov xwm txheej rau nws nce mus txog 570 yuan / tuj.
Thaum kawg, los ntawm qhov kev xav ntawm kev sib txuas ntawm cov khoom siv dub, vim qhov tsis muaj zog ntawm kev txhawb nqa ntawm cov nqi hlau, nws qhov kev poob qis kuj yuav ua rau kev hloov pauv ntawm cov hlau ore.Tam sim no, qhov kev thov rau rebar nyob rau lub caij off-season tau ua tiav, thiab qhov kev thov pom tseeb yog qhov tsis zoo.Hais txog cov khoom muag, txawm hais tias cov khoom lag luam hauv zej zog tseem tab tom depleting, tag nrho cov khoom lag luam ntawm steel mills tau pib nce, qhia tias qhov kev xav tau tsis zoo rau lub caij ntuj no.Vim tam sim no tus nqi siab thiab tsis muaj kev ntseeg siab rau yav tom ntej xav tau, cov tub lag luam tsis txaus siab rau lub caij ntuj no cia.Nyob rau hauv lub xub ntiag ntawm downward siab rau steel, nws yog pom tseeb hais tias hlau ore yuav tsum tsis txhob nyob ib leeg.
Zuag qhia tag nrho, kev nce qib ntawm cov hlau ore nyob rau hauv kev ua lag luam kev pom yog luv luv, thaum tsav downward muaj kev cuam tshuam ntau dua.