Saib rov qab rau xyoo 2021, cov khoom siv hluav taws xob sib txuas - thermal thee, coking thee, thiab coke futures price tau ntsib qhov tsis tshua muaj kev sib sau ua ke thiab poob qis, uas tau dhau los ua qhov tseem ceeb ntawm cov khoom lag luam.Ntawm lawv, nyob rau hauv thawj ib nrab ntawm 2021, tus nqi ntawm coke yav tom ntej hloov pauv nyob rau hauv ib tug broad qauv rau ntau lub sij hawm, thiab nyob rau hauv lub thib ob ib nrab ntawm lub xyoo, thermal thee tau los ua lub ntsiab ntau yam tsav cov qauv ntawm cov thee ua lag luam, tsav cov nqi. ntawm coking thee thiab coke futures fluctuate heev.Nyob rau hauv cov nqe lus ntawm tag nrho cov nqi kev ua tau zoo, coking thee muaj tus nqi loj tshaj plaws ntawm peb ntau yam.Raws li lub Kaum Ob Hlis 29, 2021, tus nqi cog lus tseem ceeb ntawm coking thee tau nce ze li ntawm 34.73% thoob plaws hauv lub xyoo, thiab tus nqi ntawm coke thiab thermal thee tau nce 3.49% thiab 2.34% raws li.%.
Los ntawm kev xav ntawm kev tsav tsheb, nyob rau hauv thawj ib nrab ntawm 2021, lub tswv yim txoj hauj lwm ntawm kev txo cov crude steel ntau lawm thoob plaws lub teb chaws tau ua rau ib tug tseem ceeb nce nyob rau hauv kev cia siab hais tias qhov kev thov rau cov thee coke yuav tsis muaj zog nyob rau hauv kev ua lag luam.Txawm li cas los xij, los ntawm qhov xwm txheej tiag tiag, tshwj tsis yog rau cov tuam txhab steel hauv Hebei Xeev kom nce kev txwv kev tsim khoom thiab cov khoom siv hlau tsis zoo kom poob qis, lwm lub xeev tsis tau siv cov phiaj xwm txo.Hauv thawj ib nrab ntawm 2021, tag nrho cov khoom siv roj av tau nce ntau dua li qhov txo qis, thiab qhov kev thov rau coking thee ua tau zoo.Lub superposition ntawm Shanxi Xeev, tus tsim khoom tseem ceeb ntawm cov thee thiab coke, ua haujlwm soj ntsuam ib puag ncig, thiab cov khoom siv tau ntsib ib ntus poob.) cov nqi yav tom ntej hloov pauv dav.Nyob rau hauv ib nrab ntawm 2021, lub zos steel mills tau ua tiav raws li txoj cai txo cov hlau tsis zoo, thiab qhov kev thov rau cov khoom siv raw tau poob qis.Raws li kev cuam tshuam ntawm cov nqi nce, cov nqi ntawm coking thee thiab coke txuas ntxiv ua raws qhov nce.Raws li kev nqis tes ua los ntawm ntau txoj cai los xyuas kom meej cov khoom thiab ruaj khov tus nqi, pib txij thaum lub Kaum Hlis 2021, cov nqi ntawm peb hom roj (thermal thee, coking thee, thiab coke) yuav maj mam rov qab mus rau qhov tsim nyog.
Xyoo 2020, kev lag luam coking tau nrawm cov txheej txheem ntawm kev tshem tawm cov peev txheej tsim tawm, nrog rau kev tshem tawm ntawm kwv yees li 22 lab tons ntawm coking muaj peev xwm thoob plaws hauv lub xyoo.Hauv xyoo 2021, lub peev xwm coking feem ntau yuav yog qhov tshiab ntxiv.Raws li kev txheeb cais, 25.36 lab tons ntawm coking muaj peev xwm yuav raug tshem tawm hauv 2021, nrog rau kev nce ntawm 50.49 lab tons thiab nce ntxiv ntawm 25.13 lab tons.Txawm li cas los xij, txawm hais tias lub peev xwm coking tau maj mam ntxiv, coke ntau lawm yuav pom qhov kev loj hlob tsis zoo nyob rau xyoo 2021. Raws li cov ntaub ntawv los ntawm National Bureau of Statistics, coke ntau lawm hauv thawj 11 lub hlis ntawm 2021 yog 428.39 lab tons, a xyoo-rau-xyoo txo ​​qis ntawm 1.6%, feem ntau yog vim qhov tsis tu ncua ntawm kev siv coking peev.Cov ntaub ntawv tshawb fawb qhia tau hais tias nyob rau hauv 2021, lub peev xwm coking siv tus nqi ntawm tag nrho cov qauv yuav poob los ntawm 90% thaum pib ntawm lub xyoo mus rau 70% thaum kawg ntawm lub xyoo.Nyob rau hauv 2021, lub ntsiab coking ntau lawm cheeb tsam yuav ntsib ntau yam kev soj ntsuam ib puag ncig, tag nrho cov kev tiv thaiv ib puag ncig txoj cai yuav nruj dua, lub zog noj dual tswj txoj cai yuav nce nyob rau hauv lub thib ob ib nrab ntawm lub xyoo, cov txheej txheem ntawm downstream crude steel ntau lawm yuav tsum. nrawm dua, thiab txoj cai tswjfwm yuav ua rau muaj kev poob qis hauv kev thov, ua rau muaj kev loj hlob tsis zoo xyoo-rau-xyoo hauv kev tsim cov coke.
Xyoo 2022, kuv lub teb chaws lub peev xwm coking tseem yuav muaj qhov nce ntxiv.Nws tau kwv yees tias 53.73 lab tons ntawm coking muaj peev xwm yuav raug tshem tawm hauv 2022, nrog rau kev nce ntawm 71.33 lab tons thiab nce ntxiv ntawm 17.6 lab tons.Los ntawm qhov kev xav ntawm cov nyiaj tau los, cov txiaj ntsig ib tuj ntawm coke hauv thawj ib nrab ntawm 2021 yog 727 yuan, tab sis nyob rau hauv ib nrab ntawm lub xyoo, nrog kev nce ntawm cov nqi coking, cov txiaj ntsig ib tuj ntawm coke yuav poob mus rau 243 yuan, thiab cov txiaj ntsig tam sim ib tuj ntawm coke yuav yog li ntawm 100 yuan thaum kawg ntawm lub xyoo.Nrog rau tag nrho kev poob qis ntawm cov nqi hluav taws xob nyoos, cov txiaj ntsig ib tuj ntawm coke yuav tsum rov qab los hauv 2022, uas yog qhov zoo rau kev rov qab los ntawm coke mov.Ntawm tag nrho, nws xav tias coke mov yuav nce tsis tu ncua hauv 2022, tab sis txwv los ntawm kev cia siab ntawm kev tswj hwm ntawm cov khoom siv roj av, qhov chaw loj hlob ntawm coke mov yog txwv.
Hais txog kev thov, tag nrho qhov kev thov rau coke xyoo 2021 yuav qhia txog qhov sib txawv ntawm qhov tsis muaj zog pem hauv ntej thiab nraub qaum.Nyob rau hauv thawj ib nrab ntawm 2021, kev txo cov hauj lwm ntawm crude steel ntau lawm nyob rau hauv feem ntau cov cheeb tsam tsis tau ua tau zoo, thiab cov zis ntawm crude steel thiab npua hlau tau nce ntau, tsav qhov kev thov rau coke kom ntxiv dag zog rau;Kev tsim khoom txuas ntxiv poob qis, ua rau tsis muaj zog coke xav tau.Raws li cov ntaub ntawv tshawb fawb, qhov nruab nrab txhua hnub tsim cov hlau molten ntawm 247 cov qauv steel nroj tsuag hauv lub tebchaws yog 2.28 lab tons, ntawm qhov nruab nrab niaj hnub tsim cov hlau molten hauv thawj ib nrab xyoo 2021 yog 2.395 lab tons, thiab qhov nruab nrab txhua hnub. zus tau tej cov hlau molten nyob rau hauv lub thib ob ib nrab ntawm lub xyoo yog 2.165 lab tons, uas tau poob mus rau 2.165 lab tons nyob rau thaum xaus ntawm lub xyoo.Kwv yees li 2 lab tons.Cov ntaub ntawv los ntawm National Bureau of Statistics qhia tias thawj 11 lub hlis ntawm 2021, cov khoom tsim tawm ntawm cov hlau tsis zoo thiab npua hlau tau ntsib kev loj hlob tsis zoo xyoo ib xyoos.
Thaum Lub Kaum Hli 13, 2021, Ministry of Industry thiab Information Technology tau tshaj tawm "Daim Ntawv Ceeb Toom Txog Kev Ua Haujlwm Hloov Peak Ntau Lawm ntawm Cov Hlau thiab Hlau Kev Lag Luam Hauv Lub Caij Ntuj Sov hauv Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei thiab Thaj Chaw Ib puag ncig hauv 2021-2022", los ntawm Lub Ib Hlis 1, 2022 txog Lub Peb Hlis 15, 2022, "2 Qhov sib piv ntawm cov khoom lag luam staggered ntawm +26" hauv nroog steel lag luam yuav tsum tsis txhob qis dua 30% ntawm cov khoom tsim tawm hauv tib lub sijhawm ntawm xyoo dhau los.Raws li qhov piv txwv no, qhov nruab nrab txhua hli cov khoom siv roj av hauv thawj peb lub hlis twg ntawm "2 + 26" lub nroog hauv 2022 yog sib npaug rau lub Kaum Ib Hlis 2021, uas txhais tau hais tias qhov kev thov rau coke hauv cov nroog no muaj qhov txwv tsis pub muaj chaw rov qab los. thawj peb lub hlis twg ntawm 2022, thiab qhov kev thov yuav nce ntxiv.Los yog kev ua tau zoo hauv Q2 thiab tshaj.Rau lwm lub xeev, tshwj xeeb tshaj yog cov cheeb tsam yav qab teb, vim tsis muaj kev txwv ntxiv, kev tsim cov hlau mills yuav tsum muaj zog ntau dua li cov cheeb tsam sab qaum teb, uas yog qhov zoo rau kev thov coke.Ntawm qhov tod tes, nws cia siab tias nyob rau hauv keeb kwm yav dhau los ntawm "dual carbon" txoj cai, txoj cai txo qis ntawm cov hlau tsis zoo yuav tseem raug coj los siv, thiab qhov kev thov coke yuav tsis tau txais kev txhawb zog.
Hais txog cov khoom muag, vim qhov kev thov muaj zog rau coke hauv thawj ib nrab xyoo 2021, thaum cov khoom lag luam tau ntsib ib ntus poob qis, cov khoom siv thiab kev xav tau hauv ib nrab xyoo thib ob yuav poob rau tib lub sijhawm, thiab cov khoom lag luam coke. feem ntau yuav qhia ib tug qauv ntawm destocking.qib qis.Xyoo 2022, xav tias cov khoom siv coke ruaj khov thiab nce ntxiv, qhov kev thov tuaj yeem tswj tau txuas ntxiv, thiab kev sib raug zoo ntawm cov khoom siv thiab kev xav tau yuav dhau mus, muaj qee qhov kev pheej hmoo ntawm kev sib sau ntawm coke.
Ntawm tag nrho, coke mov thiab kev thov yuav loj hlob nyob rau hauv thawj ib nrab ntawm 2021, thiab ob qho tib si mov thiab thov yuav tsis muaj zog nyob rau hauv lub thib ob ib nrab ntawm lub xyoo.Tag nrho cov khoom siv thiab kev xav tau kev sib raug zoo yuav nyob rau hauv cov qauv sib npaug nruj, cov khoom muag yuav txuas ntxiv mus digested, thiab tag nrho cov kev ua tau zoo ntawm cov nqi coke yuav muaj zog los ntawm cov nqi.Xyoo 2022, nrog rau kev tso tawm ua tiav ntawm lub peev xwm tsim tawm tshiab thiab kev rov qab los ntawm cov txiaj ntsig ib tuj ntawm coke, coke mov yuav nce tsis tu ncua.Ntawm qhov kev xav tau, txoj cai tsim khoom tsis txaus ntseeg thaum lub caij cua sov hauv thawj peb lub hlis twg tseem yuav txwv qhov kev thov rau coke, thiab nws yuav tsum tau khaws cia rau hauv lub quarter thib ob thiab dhau mus.Raws li kev txwv ntawm txoj cai ntawm kev ua kom cov khoom lag luam ruaj khov thiab ruaj khov, tus nqi tsav ntawm coking thee thiab coke yuav rov qab mus rau nws cov hauv paus ntsiab lus thiab cov saw hlau ferrous hlau.Kev txiav txim siab los ntawm qhov kev cia siab ntawm kev hloov pauv raws sijhawm ntawm coke mov thiab kev thov, nws xav tias cov nqi coke yuav hloov pauv tsis muaj zog hauv xyoo 2022., qhov nruab nrab thiab lub sijhawm ntev ntawm cov nqi tsom mus yuav qis dua.